Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.009917 0.011206 0.012622 0.014297 0.016230 0.018395 0.021013
2024-12-15 0.007807 0.009522 0.011578 0.014239 0.017619 0.021799 0.027410
2024-12-22 0.006414 0.008211 0.010488 0.013616 0.017848 0.023444 0.031519
2024-12-29 0.005633 0.007500 0.009975 0.013544 0.018637 0.025767 0.036717
2025-01-05 0.005278 0.007279 0.010043 0.014209 0.020455 0.029674 0.044698
2025-01-12 0.004649 0.006593 0.009365 0.013695 0.020449 0.030861 0.048682
2025-01-19 0.004172 0.006065 0.008845 0.013332 0.020590 0.032236 0.053108
2025-01-26 0.003863 0.005750 0.008601 0.013347 0.021303 0.034581 0.059489
2025-02-02 0.003728 0.005685 0.008726 0.013952 0.023037 0.038835 0.069926
2025-02-09 0.003459 0.005381 0.008438 0.013834 0.023508 0.040930 0.076659
2025-02-16 0.003268 0.005183 0.008302 0.013952 0.024399 0.043880 0.085537
2025-02-23 0.003040 0.004905 0.008003 0.013748 0.024664 0.045667 0.092307
2025-03-02 0.002907 0.004782 0.007971 0.014046 0.025961 0.049740 0.104958
2025-03-09 0.002731 0.004573 0.007772 0.014018 0.026630 0.052672 0.115726
2025-03-16 0.002488 0.004225 0.007293 0.013404 0.026038 0.052859 0.120081
2025-03-23 0.002345 0.004045 0.007104 0.013333 0.026555 0.055520 0.131011
2025-03-30 0.002310 0.004057 0.007271 0.013987 0.028696 0.062143 0.153531
2025-04-06 0.002133 0.003793 0.006892 0.013482 0.028225 0.062619 0.159722
2025-04-13 0.001990 0.003581 0.006598 0.013125 0.028046 0.063771 0.168062
2025-04-20 0.001901 0.003466 0.006483 0.013140 0.028728 0.067153 0.183653
2025-04-27 0.001878 0.003480 0.006627 0.013734 0.030858 0.074577 0.213365
2025-05-04 0.001786 0.003348 0.006462 0.013618 0.031242 0.077458 0.229477
2025-05-11 0.001722 0.003269 0.006401 0.013734 0.032221 0.082127 0.252757